In trying to comprehend the budget deficits that our government is proposing, we face the problem of what academics call “insensitivity to scope.” It affects us all; we can understand something on a small scale but have a difficult time comprehending the same thing on a massive scale.
Insensitivity to scope is a major obstacle to understanding budget deficits running to the trillions over the next decade. One way I've read to explain what a trillion is is to make it accessible, say by thinking of one dollar as one second of time. That may make it easier to comprehend the debt we are about to incur.
So here goes. If a dollar is one second in time:
1. Who was President one million seconds ago? Don't calculate it . . . take 5 seconds to answer.
2. Who was President one billion seconds ago?
3. Who was President one trillion seconds ago?
ANSWERS:
1) Approximately one million seconds ago (about 11 days ago), Barak Obama was President and was celebrating with just finishing up his first 100 days. Arlen Spector announced his intention to leave the Republican Party and join the Democratic Party; the 2009 NBA playoffs were in the full gear; Joe Biden was warning against taking the subway.
2) Approximately one billion seconds ago (1977-78), Jimmy Carter was President; Anwar Sadat visited Israel; the Sex Pistols were hot; Bruce Jenner was a leading celebrity; John Belushi was on Saturday Night Live; Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Iran; Barak Obama was in high school and Teddy Kennedy was divorcing his first wife.
3) Approximately one trillion seconds ago (30,000 b.c.), no one was President. Neanderthals camped in Europe; the Great Lakes had yet to be formed; the world's few homo sapiens had barely emerged from Africa; woolly mamoths, sabertooth tigers and giant sloths roamed much of the world unmolested by humanoids.
That is how big a trillion is.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
WE WIN (a small victory)!
US 6 THEM 0
Congratulations to California Voters. By substantial margins we dealt our increasingly irrelevant Governator, our stunningly inept and essentially corrupt state legislature and the California Teachers Association a series of small defeats on the ACCOUNTING GIMMICK AND TAX HIKE INITIATIVES.
To me, this vote appears to be a rejection of tax and spend policies by the responsible voters in this state. My argument: first: the turnout was pitifully low suggesting that new, star-struck Obama voters aren’t easily lured back to the polls for such mundane matters as the fiscal health of their state.
Second, this is the largest outpouring of popular opinion since the November 2008 election. And it follows the April Tea Party protests. The message is becoming consistent: we are losing patience for politicians who only know how to hike taxes and spend ad infinitum.
Third, California really is a mess and President Obama is not in a good position to help it through detox. California Democrats are a huge part of his governing coalition so I suspect all he will be able to do is shovel more of our money into the bottomless pit of California’s political system. Lets see how that works.
My prediction: California will effectively go bankrupt (though perhaps not de jure). Municipal and state debt rates will go up, the federal government will backstop humanitarian programs and very possibly all state and local debt. In short, everyone in the country, but especially our children, will pay for our legislature’s past profligacy for a long, long time. My sense of this election: its a preview of what happens when government is unable to control its spending or limit the power of public employee unions — the inevitable reaction when voters have finally had enough.
Still, its only a small victory. We have a lot of work left to do.
Congratulations to California Voters. By substantial margins we dealt our increasingly irrelevant Governator, our stunningly inept and essentially corrupt state legislature and the California Teachers Association a series of small defeats on the ACCOUNTING GIMMICK AND TAX HIKE INITIATIVES.
To me, this vote appears to be a rejection of tax and spend policies by the responsible voters in this state. My argument: first: the turnout was pitifully low suggesting that new, star-struck Obama voters aren’t easily lured back to the polls for such mundane matters as the fiscal health of their state.
Second, this is the largest outpouring of popular opinion since the November 2008 election. And it follows the April Tea Party protests. The message is becoming consistent: we are losing patience for politicians who only know how to hike taxes and spend ad infinitum.
Third, California really is a mess and President Obama is not in a good position to help it through detox. California Democrats are a huge part of his governing coalition so I suspect all he will be able to do is shovel more of our money into the bottomless pit of California’s political system. Lets see how that works.
My prediction: California will effectively go bankrupt (though perhaps not de jure). Municipal and state debt rates will go up, the federal government will backstop humanitarian programs and very possibly all state and local debt. In short, everyone in the country, but especially our children, will pay for our legislature’s past profligacy for a long, long time. My sense of this election: its a preview of what happens when government is unable to control its spending or limit the power of public employee unions — the inevitable reaction when voters have finally had enough.
Still, its only a small victory. We have a lot of work left to do.
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